2020 Random Thoughts
"If civilization is to survive, we must cultivate the science of human relationships-the ability of all peoples, of all kinds, to live together, in the same world at peace." - Franklin D. Roosevelt
COVID19
Mar 16, 2020
Our enemy is an old one that mutated itself into a new strain tricking our body to being susceptible to it. A virus that can cause the whole world to go down to its knees. This virus is teaching us quite a bit about humanity.
During times of uncertainty, we will see the many layers of humankind. We see stories of people hoarding, a picture of an eighty-year-old woman staring at empty shelves of toilet paper. We hear people pleading to others to flatten the curve for them, as they have autoimmune diseases, on cancer treatments, have a loved-ones who are at the most significant risk of dying if infected.
We hear stories of people saying we are panicking for no reason that other diseases kill people at a more substantial number. What we all fail to realize is this disease has no treatment, no vaccine, at this point is trial and error for those who have severe conditions. This virus has a high growth rate of infection; it is another reason why epidemiologists are worried. A virus treatment is usually more to treat your symptoms. If we cannot breathe, they give us oxygen. If too many people get infected at the same time and need this treatment, doctors will have to choose who lives and who dies. It is the rules of supply and demand.
Someone once asked me if given the choice of saving a young person or an older person, who would I save? My response, "I hope I would not put anyone in that dilemma. I would decide for them if I am one of the two needing treatment." We have the opportunity to lower the exposure, reduce the growth of the infection, by social distancing so that doctors and hospitals can handle the load of severe cases. We do not have to make them choose who to save with this ethical question.
What if we don't? We would be like Thanos from The Avengers; we will be killing off a whole population of the geriatric population, and the immunocompromised. Someone will lose their grandparents, parents, husband, wife, or child. By sitting there and ignoring what we can do to stop a common enemy, how are we different from Thanos?
This war we are in, we do not have time travel nor the Avengers to save us, we have each other. It depends on every country, and it's citizens to work together to stop the worst-case scenario of people dying. This world we are in; this common threat does not know if we are Democratic, Republican, or what our race is; all it knows is we are a human host. It knows no boundaries. Any one of us could be carrying the infection whether we realize it or not, making it all the more threatening. This virus uses our body to multiple its army.
Many countries have different strategies to combat it's spread from testing anyone with possible exposure to lockdowns to herd humanity. Why use one, when we can manipulate all to our advantage, and end this disease sooner than later? People are dying, scared, and people are losing their jobs. Our indecision is prolonging these outcomes. This virus can cause us to go into recession. We should do whatever it takes to have this disease under control. America is at it's best when we unite for a common good. We, after all, are the United States of America.
Our animal instincts made us rush to grocery stores buying whatever it takes for us to survive. Times like this can be hard, but remember that the Greatest Generation went through the Great Depression, and World War II. If they can go through all that, we can go through this together. What makes us human is our shared knowledge to find solutions. In times of darkness, we also see our most significant strengths when we realize it's not only about us. We will see more human kindness and collaboration.
Read:
What will it take to stop the Coronavirus? Jan 28, 2020 (HBR)
To Watch:
Spillover: Zika, Ebola & Beyond 2017 (PBS) - A good documentary I saw back in 2017, recently watched again.
Avengers-Endgame (Marvel 2019)
"No mistakes. No do-overs. Most of us are going somewhere, we know. That doesn't mean we should know what to expect. Be careful. Look out for each other. This is the fight of our lives, and we're going to win. Whatever it takes." Cap. Steve Rogers (Avengers-Endgame)
COVID19 Part 2- Strategies
MAR 22,2020
"In the face of overwhelming odds I'm left with only one option: I'am gonna science the shit out of this." -The Martian
Today I am writing, what I know, and what I think we should do. My hope is someone would read it and pass it along to someone who can make these things happen. Often in science, academia, and technology, we care too much about intellectual properties. Sharing and cooperating, becomes harder when we don't break down the barrier of accolades and profits for this Fight against Covid19.
As I read JFK's inaugural speech, I like to remind people of these words, "And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country." We have brilliant minds in this nation, and in this world, we must work together coordinated to control the spread of this disease. It is a global health problem, not one nation's problem.
We need to bring people together, three groups, multiple missions.
Hospital Team
- Mission: Protect our hospital staff and decrease caseload for them. Importance: They are our defenses when our natural immune system cannot fight for us against this infection.
- Everyone- It is our civic duty the citizens of this country to listen to our government officials when they say social distancing. Why? By doing so will decrease the caseload for hospitals; in doing so, we can save lives, and reduce the exposure our second line of defense (doctors, nurses, first responders) from getting infected. Flatten the curve will buy us time for R&D (finding treatments, etc.)
- Coordinators- Find what hospitals/essential health workers need. Whether PPE, ventilators, hospital beds, find sources to gather as many donations or companies to make sure we have enough inventory. Assist hospitals who are overwhelmed. Get to know the supply chain and scaling.
Research and Development Team
- Mission:
- Develop Vaccine- There are many companies, and likely academic universities working on this, please share your progress.
- Develop Antibody Test, and scale it quickly
- Scale faster testing for COVID19
- Treatment plans- there are quite a bit out there
- Why:
While we wait for a vaccine to develop, we need to test everyone. We cannot fight what we cannot see. Some people likely have a milder version of the infection who might have immunity now to it; we must test for antibodies and the active disease. Slowly get people with resistance back into the workforce who are not a threat to spreading the disease. PLAN: Get scientists/researches who have FDA approval to give their testing to the public for mass-production. - Key:Testing
- If we scale testing kits fast, whether making home kits for people to do it themselves or having multiple facilities appointment or drive by to test, doing so will calm people down. It's a win-win, we will see the infection rate better, and the public will feel reassured and safe. Slowly getting those back to work will help people's mental and financial state.
- The most significant friction we have right now in overcoming this disease is the lack of testing. Find out why, and fix it. Get as many people to cooperate as possible to manufacture more. Find as many labs in each state who can run the test kits. Recruit as many facilities as possible.
Technology Team
- Mission: To make web applications that can assist the above two's group with the organization of results and information.
- Whatever we do with public information, we will respect people's privacy. We will use technology to guide us through this without hindering our freedom.
- For the hospital, make a web application a request FORM page where any hospital or first responders can ask for PPEs. Make another page for the coordinator to enter the supplies they can obtain, or of companies who are willing to manufacture them directly to the facilities needed, Make a database of information collected.
- For the researchers, make a site for them to chat directly with one another, upload information, have a drawing board to collaborate.
- Testing Results/Tracking:
- Tracking people will be hard. We can use geolocation on people's phones, but this would make many people unhappy. It could be too much of an invasion of privacy. Out of respect for people, we will have to trust they will follow instructions.
- Instead, we will send SMS QR image code to people's phones, if they leave their home and enter a public place, they must have this as a form of ID, cross-checked with their actual ID. Think of it as the airport TSA area. The QR code will be color-coded. Green means they have immunity, okay to be in public. Yellow means their body is still naive to the virus, okay to be out, but should be cautious. Orange means they should be in quarantine, return home. Red means they are infected, should not be there. Orange and Red will get a violation for not following the rules. Once Orange and Red finish their quarantine or self-isolation, and the test is clear, they will either be Yellow or Green. Hopefully, by then, there is enough herd immunity and is safe for all Yellow.
- All public places must download the APP (tech team will make this too) to scan the QR code. If businesses want to stay open, they must follow this protocol. Think of it as credit card use. People who want to have gatherings more significant than ten people could also use the app. Anyone can use it if it makes them feel safe to be around their friends and family. It would be slightly different from the business version.
- If someone does not have text messaging services, they will receive a QR ID card. All businesses must have the APP to verify with the database people are safe to be out and about. We will depend on each other to keep the check and balances of public safety. It is a group effort.
We have to rely upon that we can mass-produce test kits to get results of what is going on, to give people hope that we will return to normalcy while we wait for vaccines, which can take 12 months to 18 months. Put into place policies where they feel safe to leave their home eventually, but also monitor those who would violate these policies.
Our Government needs our help, and I know there are many talented people out there who can do this for them. Can we have volunteers? Can we coordinate a plan together and win this fight, and share it with the rest of the world?
Again at this stage, testing is crucial because we missed the opportunity to contain the disease early. Also, if we keep doing what we are doing, we will keep having a cyclical wave function. See the MIT image. Maybe we will be lucky, and the disease will subside by itself, but are willing to take that chance? Waiting for a miracle to happen, or are we willing to take action to start taking control of the pandemic?
Question: How is it possible that we have the top Tech companies based on market capitalization, and no one has stepped up to offer their services for free such as their cloud architecture? These companies have secure cybersecurity with their database infrastructure get them to join the cause.
Mar 24, 2020, Updated - Many Tech companies are doing quite a bit to help with COVID19. Many behind the scenes we don't hear about, people are trying to find solutions. Very cool, very hopeful to know the smartest people on this planet, finding solutions to help others. Heartwarming to see people work together for the greater good. We have many brains that are also working on assisting hospitals with needs (PPE, etc.) and drug treatments. Inspirational humans. Thank you, fellow humans. I will do my part in social distancing. Tackling this at multiple angles, I like it. Humans are pretty amazing.
Team Work (sources linked below)--
Amazon, Microsoft Cloud Computing
Facebook Partner with Developers
Hackathon
MIT Technology website
To Watch:
The Maritan- Watch or read the book by Andy Weir. It's a feel good movie.
The Hopeful
MAR 28,2020
"We need to think smart, and I want to remain optimistic that we do not panic; things will be okay. I don't want to diminish the size of the problem, and of course, there is uncertainty. People may have that fear because of that uncertainty, but there is a very good chance that we will be able to weather the storm." - Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford
This best explains my outlook on COVID19--To be a Positive Pessimist.
The following is by Anthony Gunn's "Become a Positive Pessimist":
"Positive Pessimism is preparing for the worst while expecting the best. Anticipate the worst and take measures to reduce the likelihood of it happening. This builds confidence so you can step out of your comfort zone.
A pessimist complains about the rain.
An optimist expects the rain to stop.
A Positive Pessimist carries an umbrella."
Very good Interview with Dr. John Ioannidis (A Positive Pessimist):
Companies doing good:
Y Combinator
APPLE
Virulent
April 4,2020
"Never theorize before you have data. Invariably you end up twisting facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts." -Sherlock Holmes (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle)
In Inception, Cobb asked, "What is the most resilient parasite? Bacteria? A virus? An intestinal worm?" The answer he gives is "An idea. Resilient, highly contagious. Once an idea has taken hold of the brain, it's almost impossible to eradicate." We are in the information age. We are at risk of spreading misinformation all the time.
An idea like a conspiracy theory has some partial truth. An idea spreads like wildfire if we can input some fear into it. We cannot kill an idea, even if the person who states it revokes their words. If there is enough following, the idea still has a spark to be alive. That is what makes some scientists cautious of the data given on COVID19.
An article stating XYZ will circulate and live on for some time. Someone will use this source to state XYZ is a fact to get us to read it or watch it. It seems everyone is a data analyst or investigative journalist these days with the internet. We do not know the harm we have done until it's too late. COVID19 is virulent in every form, online, offline.
There is a point where we blur the truth. What is real? What is not real? At some point during this crisis, some of us will be in a spiral of information, getting lost in it. Some of us are trying to figure out a way to help, which can lead to the spread of misinformation. Some of us want answers, which can lead to some sinister conspiracy theories. We have to practice social distancing to mitigate the spread of the disease, but we also have to stop spreading malignant ideas. To use better judgment, think, and not to accept it because it's persuasive.
We have little control of the COVID19 in our physical reality, but we can stop the spread of its lethality online. Educate, but do not use people's fear to reaffirm our belief.
To watch: Inception (2010)
To watch or read: Sherlock
Q&A
Question: Why did you write about COVID19?
Every piece I wrote is due to the feeling I felt at the time. Like so many people, I have a family member, either immunocompromised, elderly, or is in the frontlines. It worried me at the time that people were not taking it seriously, so I started writing the first piece.
The second piece, I wrote because it worried me that our strategy is short term, not longterm. If you play sports, let's say basketball if we cannot see the offense (COVID19), and the only thing we know is that the goal is to score, so we stand jumping up and down, waving our hands near the hoop. The problem with this strategy is that you will only block some of the shots taken. If a player (asymptomatic COVID19) takes a three-point shot, the trajectory of the ball will make it harder for us to block if all we do is stand by the hoop, waving our hands and jumping. Maybe that strategy is okay for the first half, but it is not okay for the second half.
In a sense, it's more like football too. Because we cannot see the offense, we bet on a risky blitz defense. If our only defense is a blitz defense, we are letting some players open to run. Maybe we will stop one or two plays; perhaps we will sack the quarterback. The probability of us gaining ground is very low if all we have is one type of defensive play. The point is betting on testing only the quarterbacks (who are more likely to be symptomatic), we lose sight of the other players (the mild and asymptomatic) on the ground. We need to see who has immunity and recruit them to be on our offensive side and adjust our defenses.
Shelter-in-place is a short term strategy—we assuming many things to try to get the reproduction number (R0) close to zero. The likelihood of it being zero at this moment is low, meaning every few months we may have to be shelter-in-place is unacceptable to me. If that is the prediction from many experts, I don't know why we are not finding a better strategy. Shelter-in-place should be the time where we test every one or at least a random sample (as stated by John PA Ioannidis), have a clearer picture of what is going on, and adjust our game plan for the second half of the battle. Get actual useful data.
It bothers me how we have so many blind spots, so I wrote the second piece. I cannot accept the fact that no one can tell us a clear answer on when we can be out of shelter-in-place; there is no clear timeline. Even if we get out of it, there is a risk of the second wave, and the third wave of transmission as the R0 likely will not be zero after this first wave. I don't know how many of us can keep up not being able to see our loved ones because we don't know if we are immune or infected or not, mostly if we have loved ones in the at-risk group.
The third piece is a short one, as I felt we were quite divided, either being too pessimistic or too optimistic. The bright spot is there are many unknowns at this time that plays in our favor, but it does not mean we should let our guards down. It depends on how we choose to view the uncertainties.
The fourth piece I wrote because, as most of us are in quarantine, we go into this spiral of wanting to know more or help, so we say things to our followers that could cause the spread of misinformation. We pick and choose the things we agree within an article/journal, and misinterpret the whole purpose of the article, as though it's actual evidence. False information spreads by just giving others maybe 10% of the truth. No one disagrees with that truth, but we spin it around and start prosecuting institutions/organizations put in place to protect us. We make these organizations bend to our will. As influential people in a community do this more, I am frightened about the world we will enter after this war is over. We are using people's fear to form a bandwagon of riots. It is an emotional time; our judgment may not be the best at this time. There is a point in sharing, it's caring, but there is a point where it's harmful when we do not understand the context of what we are saying.
Do you have any other thoughts on COVID19?
It is hard for most of us to sit here and do nothing when our world seems so foreign at the moment, we all want to do more. It's heartbreaking to stand on the sidelines. Overreaction may be the right course of action when we have no idea what we are up against, but in the long run, we must be able to see what we are up against, assess our risk and benefits strategies. No one is arguing that shelter-in-place is a bad idea; we are saying it's not a sustainable tactic in the longterm. We need to look 4-5 steps ahead to win this war, with the least amount of casualties. We need to question how we label death. If we cannot listen to the dissenting opinion clearly without yelling foul and calling them heartless, we are all in trouble. People need the truth, whether it proves us right or wrong. How can we make any good decisions if we only choose and see what we want to see and hear? If the decision only affects us, yes, but this affects over 300 million Americans. It's time to put down the swords of words and go to the round table and be diplomats; this is not a civil war. We are all fighting the same enemy, even if we are miles apart.
Farewell COVID19
April 13, 2020
Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything. - George Bernard Shaw
What is there left to say? Everyone has picked their sides in this Pandemic. Nothing we can say will change the majority of the population's views.
It will be in retrospect when some great journalist or historian explains to us what we all missed. It could take many years to breakdown all our downfalls. We are all in a snowglobe; it's hard to see through the storm. It is only with time when we can hold the snowglobe with the snow settled, can we truly understand the landscape from the outside looking in. There will be stories of great people, great companies stepping up. We will hear the propagation of fear, how it affected leaders' decisions. We will have images and videos of people crying on social media from losing their jobs or loved ones. We are living in so much history.
N.
Time will tell the full story when we are willing to listen to all perspectives and not just from our social circle. The stories we tell ourselves every single day, the version of events that we replay in our head. They are not facts. It is a narrow viewpoint. To hear an unbias perspective, we will have to wait for historians to analyze the magnitude of this crisis.
The one thing I learned from history class is no one truly wins a war. It is how we view the casualties and the outcome of the events. Time is crucial; the quicker we act with useful information, the better the results. This crisis is not a moral decision of the Elderly versus the Economy. It is not an all or nothing. To say it is, we are gambling on the intuition that we know what the right answer is for everyone.
Great companies/organizations and some superhumans worth knowing about:
Flexport - PPE for frontline responders fund. (Thank you, Paul Graham, via your twitter, for sharing)
Donate to Flexport
Moms Rising - for being educational and raising awareness with racial death disparity with COVID19. Thank you for making a petition so we can support a worthy cause. One of the lessons of COVID19 is there are racial inequalities; whether it's health or economics, we should try to understand it more. Petition for Data
Thank you, Rihanna and Jack Dorsey, for highlighting the help needed for Domestic Violence Programs during this time of shelter in place. Another lesson/issue raised that should be noted with strategic effort with COVID19.
I am a fan of the Open Source Community. To know that remarkable companies (Intel, Mozilla, Creative Commons, among others) joining together to make Intellectual Properties available during this COVID19 fight have made my heart excited. - OPEN COVID
Thank you to Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for their efforts in Vaccine Development. I told my mother about this, and she was so happy, she said she had tears. - Gates Foundation Strategy for COVID19
Thank you to Dr. John PA Ioannidis for teaching me so much through his one video. (You do not know how inspirational you are to me. What a great brain you have, John PA Ioannidis.)
Other Goodies worth reading:
Understand COVID need evidence skepticism and vigorous debate- Dr. John Lee
Thank you internet for leading me to these people. All these gems of human minds that I would not have been able to find without the world wide web. It's Grateful Monday. I am grateful for all those who share their knowledge with me to help me think better. It is not what you do; it's how you all do it with such grace. During this time of darkness, you all are the light that has helped me smile. Knowing that the most excellent companies and minds are working on this makes me feel calm.
Is it time to walk away from this subject? I think so.